Welcome to donduk. A refuge for those who enjoy Deal or No Deal, the hit Channel 4 gameshow hosted by Noel Edmonds. The award winning gameshow Deal or No Deal has become a big hit for Channel 4 and marks a sensational return to our screens of Noel Edmonds.

Deal or No Deal is enjoyed my millions of viewers daily, where the contestants battle with The Banker to try and win a jackpot of £250,000. Here at donduk you will find full daily reports of each show, as well Deal or No Deal news and specials. Deal or No Deal although initially appearing very simple in format of just opening a few boxes for the chance to win some big money prizes, actually has some potentially complex decisions to be made at points throughout the show, the contestants occasionally try complex or simple gameplay in an attempt to give them an edge in beating the Banker.

Saturday, April 01, 2006

Take The Money or Open The Box?

All in all it's been quite a poor week for the contestants on DOND, the average win of around £9,000 being way under the series' average of just over £17,000. Even bookie Aaron was unable to parlay his expertise with odds into any more than £25,000, the sight of Lucy walking away with £5 after 50 editions of the show (10p per episode) was simply heartbreaking, and even that was capped by Janet's dreadful £1 prize - "If you have tears, prepare to shed them now" indeed! Luckily Steve just managed to claw back a little respectability this evening, but The Banker must be enjoying himself... by the way, did you notice this evening that the game logo at the beginning credits (immediately after Noel's sign-off) actually read "Noel Or No Noel"? A secret joke from the graphics team perhaps...?

However, it was last Tuesday's show that I'm going to focus on here, which saw Bob become the latest player to end up having £250,000 in his box (even though he dealt at £27,000), which is as good a cue as any to open up the thorny old question of "Will anyone ever win the £250,000?"

Bob was the 7th player in 126 shows to have £250,000 in his box, one greater than the 6 you'd expect from a random 1 in 22 distribution pattern (£1,000 being the least-found number in the box, fact-fans!) For the sake of this argument, let's assume that for anyone other than a huge gambler to win £250,000, the last 2 boxes would have to be the £250,000 box plus the £100,000. The odds of this happening randomly are around 2 in a 1,000, or once in every 500 shows. Of course, once we even get to this scenario, the player has to make the right choice of box (a 50% chance), so we're looking at a £250,000 payout once in every 1,000 shows, or once every 3 years!

If that's a bit too long-term for you, how about if we were to say that the second box need only have at least £50,000 in it? The odds then shorten considerably to around 13 in 2,000, or once in every 154 shows, with a £250,000 payout every 308 shows, or roughly once a year. That's better isn't it?

Or if even that is too long for you, we could go the whole way and say the final 2 boxes just need to be the £250,000 plus any other box. Though it would take a real gambler to make it to this point, this scenario should happen in about 1 in 10 shows, or at least once a fortnight! BUT, lest we forget, the player has to get through to the last 2 boxes for any of these scenarios to occur - the vast majority of players would deal before reaching this point, or take The Banker's offer once they get there, as a few people already have in the relatively short time the show has been running.

The short version? It's very possible, especially for a real gambler, but don't hold your breath... 'til next time, NO DEAL!

7 comments:

Ìain said...

Excellent post Adie

Mister Al said...

Sorry to do this, but I'd like to point out a number of inaccuracies in this post.

1. Bob was the sixth player to have the quarter-million in his box (not the seventh).

2. The odds of the last two boxes being the £100k and the £250k are precisely 1 in 231 (not 1 in 500).

3. The odds of the last two boxes being the £250k with at least £50k back-up are precisely 1 in 77 (not 1 in 154).

4. The odds of the the last two boxes containing the £250k are precisely 1 in 11 (which I suppose is "about 1 in 10"...)

Woody said...

Not relevant to this post but I'm not sure of any other way to ask this....

Can anybody tell me what the symbols on Noel's hand are for? You see them whenever he is on the phone to the Banker.

I can't be the only person thats noticed this can I??

Ìain said...

Woody - you are not alone, so far there have been 2231 visitors to this blog who have been specifically searching for the answer to this question.

At a guess I would say Noel is doing it deliberately to cause this furore - its a different symbol everyday, and it is on the side of the hand so that it is easier for us to see it than him.

On the other hand (excuse the pun) it could be an experiment. A couple of years ago a television program about the mind had sequences in which a man dressed in a gorilla suit walked in the background, while a presenter described various points about the mind. Apparently most viewers didn't notice until it was pointed out at the end of the program.

Woody said...

I'm soooo glad I'm not the only one! I did wonder if it was a continuity thing, as they record 3 shows in a day, and maybe edit bits in or out, so I decided to try and check if Noel changed his shirt - maybe he had the same shirt for 3 shows ... YUK

But I have failed to even recognise the shirts!

I hope someone finds the answer soon, I shall watch this space.

Hywel said...

No, all contestants are asked to bring in three sets of clothes and they, including Noel change their clothes between recordings. What, I wonder happens to the audience though? Since the audience is quite prominent in this show, do they change the audience for each show or are they asked to move around? Surely the audience won't have a change of clothes for each episode!

I'll try to remember to keep all this week's episode on my TiVo so that I can compare audiences from show to show.

I wonder how far back the little symbol on Noel's hand has been there. I noticed it at the end of week before last, just before it was mentioned here. I'd love to wind back to see when it first started appearing.

I suspect it's the production team having a little in-joke, just like the Noel or Noel graphic. They're getting quite relaxed now that the show has become so successful - they can get away with a bit more shenanigans :)

jolly said...

So far as I am aware the symbols on Noel's hand started in mid March of this year, there is a list of them on the other 2 DOND sites