Welcome to donduk. A refuge for those who enjoy Deal or No Deal, the hit Channel 4 gameshow hosted by Noel Edmonds. The award winning gameshow Deal or No Deal has become a big hit for Channel 4 and marks a sensational return to our screens of Noel Edmonds.

Deal or No Deal is enjoyed my millions of viewers daily, where the contestants battle with The Banker to try and win a jackpot of £250,000. Here at donduk you will find full daily reports of each show, as well Deal or No Deal news and specials. Deal or No Deal although initially appearing very simple in format of just opening a few boxes for the chance to win some big money prizes, actually has some potentially complex decisions to be made at points throughout the show, the contestants occasionally try complex or simple gameplay in an attempt to give them an edge in beating the Banker.

Monday, April 10, 2006

"Beating The Banker" or "The House Always Wins"

Last week's supposed "Beat The Banker" theme didn't go exactly as planned, though of course that depends on our definition of "Beating The Banker"...

For instance, if we mean the contestant wins more money than was in their box, then yes, 3 players last week did that, though 2 players didn't (but they both had £100,000 so can be forgiven!), and of course Kirsty won the £75,000 that was in her box, in arguably the first real opportunity for a player to take the £250,000 (by the way, is it me or had I never seen Kirsty before?)

This isn't an untypical pattern - around 60% of contestants (82 out of 136 games) win more than is in their box, with another 18% (24 of 136) going through to the end and taking what's actually in their box, so only 22% of players come off worse.

What's interesting is comparing this to the average win per show, which currently stands at a tad below £17,500 over the entire series. Therefore, the chance of winning more than the average just by going randomly to the endgame is 6 in 22, or 27%, making that 60% look pretty impressive in comparison.

(And by the way, if you think that payouts are getting lower as the series progresses, think again - the average win in the past 6 weeks is almost £20,000.)

However, if we really want to see where The Banker earns his money, we need to look at who walks away with a smaller prize than they needed to, and a staggering 60% (81 out of 136) have ended up winning less than the highest offer they received from The Banker. If we then add on the 48 contestants (35%) who accept the highest offer they receive, that leaves a mere 7 contestants who have genuinely "Beaten The Banker", i.e. won more than The Banker has ever offered them.

Maybe this has more to do with mankind's natural instinct to play the game, or perhaps it's just about pure greed, but this number is way out of kilter with the figures which pure chance would suggest, indicating that The Banker really does have a better handle on the game that some give him credit for, something to think about if you ever find yourself taking "The Walk Of Wealth!"

Until then, keep telling yourself - NO DEAL!

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